Migration and poverty in cee countries: a gravity model approach (2007 – 2016)

Abstract

The decision to migrate is a function of several variables, which help or obstruct migration and can be marked with positive and negative signs. Negative factors include social and economic problems in home countries, such as poverty, rights violation, political and armed conflicts etc. On the other hand, positive factors are related with host countries conditions, such as high income, common language, high security level etc. This paper is focused on the emigration phenomenon in some CEE (Central and Eastern European) countries and on the corresponding determinants. We estimate an original gravity model including some independent variables that are related with typical concerns for developing countries, such as poverty, unemployment and corruption. According to the diagnostic tests, the estimated equation fits well our sample. Authorities of CEE countries should orient their policies toward the creation of new jobs, the elimination of corruption and of the culture of impunity, and the mitigation of inequality. This will lead to a sustainable economic growth and to the reduction of future migration outflow.